Stable budget outlook projects $3.7 billion surplus now, no deficit in next biennium

The projected surplus for Fiscal Years 2026-27 is now higher than it was in the November estimate, and no deficit is projected for the next biennium.

“Minnesota’s budget outlook has improved amid significant near-term economic and fiscal uncertainty,” according to the February forecast released Friday by Minnesota Management and Budget.

The 2026-27 biennium projected balance is now $3.7 billion, $1.3 billion higher than November estimates. “A slightly improved economic outlook drives a higher revenue forecast largely driven by more volatile sources of revenue,” according to MMB.

However, spending growth is forecast to outpace revenue growth in the projections through Fiscal Year 2029. The projected General Fund balance for the 2028-29 biennium is now $377 million, but “a significant structural imbalance remains. Shifting policies at the federal level and missing or incomplete data due to recent federal government shutdowns introduce significant uncertainty to the projections,” according to MMB.