State’s budget forecast projects surplus — but warns future less certain

The state's financial situation continues to get better — for now.

Minnesota Management and Budget officials released the November 2023 Budget and Economic Forecast Wednesday, saying the state's expected budget surplus is now $2.4 billion for the current fiscal biennium.

That’s an increase of $808 million from the most recent previous estimate that came at the end of the 2023 legislative session. But in a preliminary statement on the forecast, budget officials also warned that a “significant structural imbalance constrains the budget outlook in FY 2026-27.”

While consumer spending and corporate profits were higher than expected, resulting in increased tax revenues in current biennium, MMB officials say higher spending estimates in health and human services and education result in a “negative structural balance in the next biennium.”